Coronavirus Could Mean Another Epic Meltdown for U.S. Home Prices
Barring an immediate and effective treatment or vaccine for COVID-19, the nation鈥檚 housing market will all but cease this spring 鈥 and the fallout could be similar to what occurred during the historic collapse more than a decade ago, said , an economist in 抖M女仆鈥檚 .
Not many house hunters will feel comfortable making such a major decision during the pandemic, and those who do likely will have trouble getting financing, according to Johnson. What鈥檚 more, social distancing requirements have curtailed in-person house visits, and virtual tours aren鈥檛 an adequate substitute for many buyers.
While mortgage rates are near historic lows now, rates almost certainly will rise, as lenders anticipate higher levels of default amid mounting job losses and salary reductions. The higher rates will further push down demand.
The housing market already was nearing a correction before COVID-19, so an effective treatment or vaccine established in the next few weeks should translate to only about a 5 to 10 percent drop in home prices, followed by a relatively quick recovery, according to Johnson.聽
鈥淏ut if this lasts for many months, it could easily rival or surpass what we saw during the last housing crash,鈥 Johnson said.
During the housing collapse of 2006-2011, homes in many markets nationwide lost half or more of their values. The market didn鈥檛 start to recover until investors acquired properties at deep discounts to renovate and resell or rent.
Staying at home and practicing social distancing are helping to reduce the spread of COVID-19, but even loosening or eliminating those orders in the next month won鈥檛 be enough to jump-start the housing market without a treatment or vaccine to combat the virus, Johnson said.
鈥淯ncertainty destroys value,鈥 he said. 鈥淭he more uncertainty there is, the more a potential buyer will discount the value of the home and overestimate the cost of ownership.鈥
Johnson advises sellers to wait out the pandemic before putting their homes on the market, and buyers who need mortgages also should plan to remain on the sidelines. Only cash buyers looking for big bargains stand to benefit from the current climate, in which it鈥檚 not possible to reliably predict such barometers as price and days on market.
鈥淲ith a ceased housing market, we will have to revert to gut and common sense to tell us what will happen,鈥 he said. 鈥淭his is a very scary thing for housing as we have never been here before.鈥澛
-抖M女仆-
Tags: home sales | Great Recession | Home prices | coronavirus