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Florida’s U.S. Senate and Governor’s Races Tight, Poll Finds

In the gubernatorial race, Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, garnered 41.4 percent of the vote, while DeSantis, a former U.S. representative, has 36.7 percent, with 17.5 percent undecided.

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With two weeks left before Election Day, Republican Florida Gov. Rick Scott leads incumbent Democrat U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson by less than two points in Florida’s critical U.S. Senate race, while Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum maintains a narrow lead over Republican nominee Ron DeSantis in the battle to be the state’s next governor, according to the statewide survey by the ().  

Since the last ��MŮ�� survey five weeks ago, Scott has seen his lead increase slightly, from less than one point in September to 42.3 percent over Nelson’s 40.6 percent in this latest poll, with 13.1 percent undecided. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.6 percent.

Scott has a slight edge in overall job approval, with 42.9 percent of voters approving Scott’s performance as governor and 35.8 percent disapproving. Nelson’s performance as senator earned him a 36.4 percent approval and 34.7 percent disapproval.

In the gubernatorial race, Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, garnered 41.4 percent of the vote, while DeSantis, a former U.S. representative, has 36.7 percent, with 17.5 percent undecided. That’s a slightly larger margin than the September poll, which showed Gillum up 41.3 percent to 38.5 percent. Young voters could be a major factor in the governor’s race, as 18 to 34 year olds favor Gillum 46.3 percent to 24.7 percent.

“This election will be a test of the youth vote,” said , Ph.D., professor of political science at ��MŮ�� and a research fellow of the Initiative. “If young voters turn out in high numbers, it could carry the Democratic ticket.” 

A ban on assault weapons was supported by 42.7 percent of voters, down eight points from the September survey, while 33.6 percent oppose and 23.7 percent are undecided. Gun control policy again ranked fourth among the most important issues to voters in the upcoming election. Healthcare jumped to No. 1 among the most important issues with 30.8 percent, followed by immigration at 23.9 percent, the economy in general at 13 percent, and gun control policy at 10.3 percent. An August survey had immigration polling two points above healthcare at the top of voters’ most important issues.  

When asked whose policies they believe are most responsible for the algae problem along Florida’s coasts, 35.3 percent of voters said Scott as governor is most responsible, while 19.9 percent said Nelson as U.S. Senator was most responsible, and 44.7 percent said they don’t know.

“Perhaps holding Scott back is the algae problem in the state,” said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of the BEPI. “Voters are nearly twice as likely to blame him as they are Nelson.”

Roughly one-third of Floridians (33.4 percent) rated the state of Florida’s evacuation planning and process prior to Hurricane Michael making landfall as excellent, while 40.6 said it was good, 23.6 percent fair and 2.4 percent poor. Scott’s response to Hurricane Michael was rated excellent by 38.8 percent of voters, while 32.1 percent rated it good, 24.6 percent rated it fair and 4.5 percent rated it poor.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating improved more than five points from 38.7 percent in last month’s poll to 44.5 percent in the latest survey, while his disapproval rating fell to 42 percent.

Party breakdown among the survey respondents was 37 percent Democrats, 35 percent Republicans and 28 percent Independents. 

The survey was conducted Oct. 18-21 and polled 704 Florida registered voters who said they are likely to vote. The survey was conducted using an online sample supplied by using online questionnaires and via an automated telephone platform (IVR) using registered voter lists supplied by The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. Responses for the entire sample were weighted to reflect the statewide distribution of the Florida population. The polling results and full cross-tabulations are available at .

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