Study Ranks Florida, Ohio Housing Markets Among Nation鈥檚 Most Overvalued
When it comes to metropolitan areas with the nation鈥檚 most overpriced homes, Florida and Ohio are leading the pack, according to researchers at 抖M女仆 and .
Each month, 抖M女仆鈥檚 , Ph.D., and FIU鈥檚 , Ph.D., rank the most overvalued housing markets of America鈥檚 100 largest metros, similar to the popular . Johnson and Beracha incorporate average or expected price changes and provide an estimate of how much a market鈥檚 housing stock is over- or undervalued, relative to its historic pricing.
Among the 33 most inflated U.S. markets at the end of December 2021, seven are from Florida, including No. 12 Lakeland and No. 14 Tampa, both at more than 40 percent above historic pricing. Ohio has four metros in the top third of the rankings.
鈥淚f you鈥檙e buying a home in these metros across Florida, Ohio and other areas, it鈥檚 imperative that you know you鈥檙e buying close to the peak of the market,鈥 said Johnson, an economist for 抖M女仆 within the . 鈥淭he danger is that prices will soon level off or even decline, and you鈥檒l be stuck in that home for a significant amount of time before you can sell it at a profit that makes financial sense.鈥
The nation鈥檚 most overvalued market remains Boise, Idaho, where buyers pay about 77 percent more than they should, based on past pricing trends. Austin, Texas, is second, with buyers paying a premium of about 60 percent.
Utah has three metros in the Top 10: Ogden (3), Provo (5) and Salt Lake City (9). The full rankings with interactive graphs can be viewed .
A recent rise in mortgage rates will soon affect the U.S. housing market, and metro areas with low housing inventories and expectations of future population growth are positioned to withstand the looming real estate slowdown, the researchers said.
For instance, Miami, the at about 21 percent, has relatively low housing inventory levels and a steady influx of new residents, likely helping Florida鈥檚 largest metro weather pricing slowdowns. Madison, Wisconsin; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and Richmond, Virginia are other areas where prices could level off rather than drop sharply, according to the researchers.
However, markets with limited prospects for future growth could face more difficult downturns in the face of rising mortgage rates. Those areas include: Detroit; Memphis, Tennessee; and Dayton and Youngstown, Ohio.
鈥淢ortgage rates have been near historic lows for the last two years and have helped keep housing demand strong through the pandemic,鈥 said Beracha, of FIU鈥檚 . 鈥淣ow we鈥檙e seeing rates rise, and that鈥檚 going to take some buyers out of the market and curtail price gains. Areas like Miami are better equipped than others to withstand the hit.鈥
New York and San Francisco, two traditionally expensive housing markets, are among the nation鈥檚 least overvalued, according to the researchers鈥 rankings.
鈥淏uyers in some cities have seemingly learned from past mistakes,鈥 Johnson said. 鈥淚t is as if they have refused to be tricked into believing that housing prices only grow to the sky a second time around.鈥
The researchers use publicly available data from the online real estate portal 聽or other providers. The data, which extends from January 1996 through December 2021, covers single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops.
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